Murphy’s Blog: AEW Full Gear Predictions – Hangman Page vs. Samoa Joe in a steel cage match for the AEW World Championship, Kris Statlander vs. Mercedes Mone for the AEW Women’s Championship

By Don Murphy, ProWrestling.net Contributor (@DonThePredictor)

AEW presents its annual Full Gear pay-per-view event tonight in Newark, New Jersey, at Prudential Center. If you’ve read my predictions for AEW shows before, you know what’s coming. If you haven’t. I’ll give you the short version in saying that I have little doubt that diehard AEW fans, as well as hardcore fans of the in-ring product and all that comes with it, will be entertained by what they see tonight. For fans who enjoy a bit more storytelling to go along with their wrestling, this may not get the adrenaline flowing. I land somewhere in the middle. While this show runs flat for me from a storyline standpoint, I do see some matches on here that I’m curious to see how they play out. Now then, let’s run down the card!

Hangman Page vs. Samoa Joe in a steel cage match for the AEW World Championship. If you read my WrestleDream preview, you’ll remember that I was less than enthused by a babyface vs. babyface match and that I had hoped to see Joe turn to get his heat back. While I got my wish, I still think they could have done more to establish Joe as a sadistic heel. The match will be fine, but I question the decision to go straight to the steel cage. Old guys like me remember this being reserved for the final match in the feud when all options had been exhausted. In addition, wrestling has conditioned us over the years to know that while the cage is meant to keep people out (in this case, The Opps), it never really works out that way. And despite all of this, I don’t see Page dropping the title here.

Don Predicts: Hangman Page retains the AEW World Championship.

Kris Statlander vs. Mercedes Mone for the AEW Women’s Championship. On paper, I know these two will deliver a good match. That’s not the issue and never was. Both talents, as characters, are flat. Now to some, that’s OK as it’s not about the character. But until I see Statlander deliver a decent, if not a home run of a promo, I’m not going to fully buy in. With Mone, the argument has been made that winning all of these titles has raised the stock of women’s wrestling and the companies these titles represent. I don’t see it. Aside from a few, I couldn’t tell you anything about the titles she’s holding, and AEW hasn’t done the work to educate me. I am interested to see how the character evolves once she starts dropping titles but that seems to be a way off.

Don Predicts: Mercedes Mone wins the AEW Women’s Championship.

“Brodido” Brody King and Bandido vs. “FTR” Dax Harwood and Cash Wheeler for the AEW Tag Team Titles. I’ll keep this relatively brief. The AEW tag team division could be booked so much better and mean so much more. That being the case, I will say that I’ve enjoyed FTR’s heel run and think that a title run is the next logical step. Should that be the case, there are two things to watch out for. First, I want to see AEW build up some teams so that FTR can have some meaningful programs. I don’t want a steady stream of predictable title defenses and multi-team matches that headline Collision. Second, I assume that this will return King and Bandido to the singles roster. Find a way to use them better than as set-up wrestlers for other guys. King, in particular, could be booked better than he was previously as a single.

Don Predicts: FTR wins the AEW Tag Team Titles.

Kyle Fletcher vs. Mark Briscoe for the TNT Championship (Briscoe must join the Don Callis Family if he loses). While I’m ready to see AEW move on from this, I don’t like either potential outcome. Fletcher is clearly someone they have high hopes for. Dropping the title to Briscoe here wouldn’t be the end of the world, but it would be a setback, and I don’t see it happening. On the other hand, I can’t say Briscoe joining the already overpopulated Callis Family does anything for me. Should this be the case, I hope it’s short-lived, as I can’t buy him as a heel.

Don Predicts: Kyle Fletcher retains the TNT Championship.

A Casino Gauntlet match to become the first AEW National Champion (Bobby Lashley and Shelton Benjamin will be the first two entrants). For fans in the 1980s, you may remember when Demolition Ax and Smash were numbers one and two in the Royal Rumble. I always remember enjoying that. Lashley and Benjamin aren’t exactly at that level, but it did conjure up some memories. It’s hard to make a pick here without knowing everyone that’s in it, but I’ll say it will likely be someone we haven’t seen for a while making a return. You’ll see below that I’m taking a complete shot in the dark.

Don Predicts: Jay White wins the AEW National Championship.

Kenny Omega, Jack Perry, and Luchasaurus vs. Matt Jackson, Nick Jackson, and Josh Alexander in a trios match for $1 million. Aside from the silly monetary stipulation, I am looking forward to the Young Bucks’ face turn finally happening here. Should it not, at the very least, I’m hoping for some meaningful storyline progression. Not that I’m excited to see a reunited Elite feuding with the Callis Family, but I’m ready for the next chapter.

Don Predicts: Kenny Omega, Jack Perry, and Luchasaurus defeat Matt Jackson, Nick Jackson, and Josh Alexander.

Darby Allin vs. Pac. While I am sure fans will enjoy death-defying Allin spots in this match, it doesn’t do much for me, especially since Pac has essentially adopted Austin Aries’ look.

Don Predicts: Darby Allin defeats Pac.

Jon Moxley vs. Kyle O’Reilly in a No Holds Barred match. I really want Jon Moxley to go on that extended fishing trip because this is akin to a Collision main event. In fact, I think it was a few weeks back. I’m sure the match will be fine, but this endless spiral of the Death Riders and the Conglomeration needs to end. And while we’re at it, let’s just end both factions and move on.

Don Predicts: Jon Moxley defeats Kyle O’Reilly.

Toni Storm and Mina Shirakawa vs. Megan Bayne and Marina Shafir vs. Harley Cameron and Willow Nightingale vs. Julia Hart and Skye Blue in a four-way tag. The winning team earns the right to pick the stipulation for their AEW Women’s Tag Team Title tournament semifinal match. I’m not really sure why they didn’t just go with tournament matches here, but this is where we try to get everyone on the show.

Don Predicts: Megan Bayne and Marina Shafir win the match and earn the right to pick the semifinal match stipulation.

And I’ll do rapid-fire predictions for tonight’s AEW Collision “Tailgate Brawl” episode.

-“El Sky Team” Mistico, Mascara Dorada, and Neon retain the CMLL Trios Titles over. Kazuchika Okada, Konosuke Takeshita, and Hechicero. Expect some more movement toward the Okada/Takeshita explosion.

-Max Caster and Anthony Bowens defeat Juice Robinson/Austin Gunn, Big Bill/Bryan Keith, and “The Outrunners” Truth Magnum and Turbo Floyd in a four-way tag match for $200,000. Another silly money stipulation. This will further the reunification of The Acclaimed.

-Big Boom AJ and QT Marshall defeat Trent Beretta and Rocky Romero.

-Eddie Kingston and Hook defeat “The Workhorsemen” JD Drake and Anthony Henry.

Join Jason Powell for his live review of the pre-show at 6CT/7ET or the start of the pay-per-view card at 7CT/8ET. Jake Barnett will team up with Jason for their same-night audio review of Full Gear for Dot Net Members (including our Patreon patrons).