By Don Murphy, ProWrestling.net Contributor (@DonThePredictor)
AEW holds its Forbidden Door pay-per-view event tonight in San Jose, California, at SAP Center. With All In at Wembley Stadium serving as AEW’s biggest event of the year, Forbidden Door starts us on the journey to that show, as we will find out who will be challenging for the men’s and women’s singles world titles. And I have to say, while the card doesn’t do much for me on paper (mainly because I’m not familiar with many of the New Japan, CMLL, and Stardom names), I can appreciate that Tony Khan showed a very slight glimpse of discipline in putting the main card together. There are nine matches on the main card as opposed to the 11 or 12 we normally get. Right now, there are only two matches advertised for the pre-show. I know we’ll end up with another one or two by the time we get there, but for the AEW standard of the marathon show, this one doesn’t look to be as daunting as some of the others. Of course, these matches could all go 25-40 minutes each and completely blow this out of the water, but we’ll see. Let’s run down the card!
Will Ospreay vs. Swerve Strickland in the men’s Owen Hart Cup tournament final for a shot at the AEW World Championship at All In. I’ve consistently said that when building to a title match, take me on a journey. And that’s what they’re doing with Ospreay. I like how they’ve presented him as reflecting on last year’s loss, making that the driving force through this tournament. I have enjoyed the exchanges between him and Swerve, though I don’t know how I am supposed to feel about Swerve. He’s been dancing between heel and babyface, and I wish they’d just pick a definitive path. I also haven’t been a fan of the Ospreay-Moxley alliance. It’s interesting, but one minute you’re out for blood because he put you on the shelf for six months, and the next, you’re training with him. Thankfully, for this match, they’ve scaled back that story a bit. As for the match itself, it’s Ospreay. If you’re a fan of his work, you’ll enjoy it. To me, he’s a phenomenal athlete and exciting to watch. I do get taken out of the moment when watching his matches due to the lack of selling, though it’s gotten better in recent weeks. All that to say, this should be a highlight match of the night.
As we look toward Wembley Stadium, it looks like we’re headed toward a showdown between Ospreay and Kenny Omega for the title. AEW Redemption show takes place next month in Canada, and early signs point to Kenny capturing the title from MJF. I know they’ve done MJF vs. Ospreay at Wembley before and, to many, Omega vs. Ospreay in the biggest match AEW can do, but I really hope they resist temptation and keep the title on MJF for the Ospreay showdown. You can tell a good story in the build, and the title win for Ospreay will mean more when he beats the long-standing champion, rather than one who won the title a month before. Plus, you’re then splitting the crowd, as both are highly popular. For me, it’s better to have Ospreay as the definitive crowd favorite over a hated heel champion.
Don Predicts: Will Ospreay defeats Swerve Strickland to win the men’s Owen Hart Cup tournament.
Mercedes Mone vs. Maya World in the women’s Owen Hart Cup tournament final for a shot at the AEW Women’s Championship at All In. As a fan of the “Rocky” series, I appreciate the underdog story being told here. And I think that we’re going to see an upset here, with World winning the entire tournament. To me, it would at least put some value on having Athena job in the semi-finals. It also helps create a new player in the women’s division while completing the “downward spiral” story they’ve been telling with Mone. The loss will put her at a crossroads, and it would be interesting to see where they go next. I can’t say that I would see World as a threat to take the title from Thekla at All In, but I have been wrong many times before.
Don Predicts: Maya World defeats Mercedes Mone to win the women’s Owen Hart Cup tournament.
Thekla vs. Starlight Kid for the AEW Women’s Championship. I don’t follow Stardom, so this story of Thekla wanting to destroy the promotion is entirely lost on me. I am also not familiar with Starlight Kid, but I imagine the match will be decent.
Don Predicts: Thekla defeats Starlight Kid to retain the AEW Women’s Championship.
Adam Copeland and Christian Cage vs. “The Dogs” David Finlay and Clark Connors for the AEW Tag Team Titles. I’ve enjoyed this build, featuring the veterans against the young upstarts. This will be a good match, serving as a buffer to All In at Wembley, where I expect Copeland and Cage to be challenged by the Young Bucks for the titles. And I can’t rule out the New Day being added to that match as their 90-day non-compete clause with WWE expires in early August, giving AEW a few weeks to get them into the mix.
Don Predicts: Adam Copeland and Christian Cage defeat “The Dogs” David Finlay and Clark Connors to retain the AEW Tag Team Titles.
Jon Moxley vs. Bandido for the AEW Continental Championship. We know this will be a good match, but I feel like Moxley has been spinning his wheels. He’s in this weird “frenemy” storyline with Will Ospreay. And he’s another one who dances on the line between babyface and heel. He deserves a solid singles storyline over the title, as opposed to faction wars with Shane Taylor Promotions and the Don Callis Family. Finally, if you’re not even going to give prominence to the fact that Bandido is the ROH Champion, either take the title off of him, or better yet, disband the promotion entirely. I know, I know. We’re creating jobs and giving guys reps. That’s a rant for another day.
Don Predicts: Jon Moxley defeats Bandido to retain the AEW Continental Championship.
Shota Umino vs. Pac for the IWGP Global Heavyweight Title. Another good match that’s lost on me, as I haven’t kept up on New Japan. But, from what I know about Pac, this one should deliver. As an aside, I want them to do more with Pac. He’s a tremendous athlete and character when given the opportunity and the right program.
Don Predicts: Shota Umino defeats Pac to retain the IWGP Global Heavyweight Title.
MJF, Kevin Knight, Kyle Fletcher, Kazuchika Okada, Andrade El Idolo, and Jake Doyle vs. Mark Briscoe, Darby Allin, Konosuke Takeshita, Orange Cassidy, Roderick Strong, and Kyle O’Reilly in a six-on-six cage match (Briscoe gets a shot at the AEW World Championship if his team wins). If you read one of my past Collision reviews, you know how I feel about this match. I can’t understand how, in 2026, the babyfaces would participate in a match where, if they win, only one person benefits. As I said, this would have worked in the 80s, but now, it’s been established that friendship ends when the title is involved. I’m more forgiving with the heels, as MJF paid them off and promised Knight a title shot if they win. Expect some interaction between MJF and Knight and some potential fireworks between MJF and Andrade. I will also say that I am morbidly curious to see how they’re going to get 12 guys in a single cage.
Don Predicts: Mark Briscoe, Darby Allin, Konosuke Takeshita, Orange Cassidy, Roderick Strong, and Kyle O’Reilly defeat MJF, Kevin Knight, Kyle Fletcher, Kazuchika Okada, Andrade El Idolo, and Jake Doyle in a six-on-six cage match.
Kenny Omega vs. Zack Sabre Jr. This match stands out because it’s not your typical high spot match. Sabre brings a different approach altogether, and it will be a nice break from the chaos we’ll see on the rest of the card. As I said, I expect Kenny to win the title in July, though I hope that’s not the plan.
Don Predicts: Kenny Omega defeats Zack Sabre Jr.
“El Sky Team” Mistico and Mascara Dorada vs. “The Young Bucks” Matt Jackson and Nick Jackson vs. Shingo Takagi and Titan. This will be a standard spot fest to delight the crowd. As I said, we’re likely on the path to the Bucks challenging for the tag titles at Wembley.
Don Predicts: “The Young Bucks” Matt Jackson and Nick Jackson defeat “El Sky Team” Mistico and Mascara Dorada, and vs. Shingo Takagi and Titan.
Quick Forbidden Door “Buy In” Predictions
Megan Bayne and Lena Kross defeat Thunder Rosa and Olympia to retain the AEW Women’s Tag Team Titles.
Skye Blue defeats Maika to qualify for the Survival of the Fittest match for the TBS Championship.
Join Jason Powell for his live review of Forbidden Door tonight at 7CT/8ET. Jason’s same-night audio review will be available for Dot Net Members (including our Patreon patrons).
I’ll be back with predictions for NXT Great American Bash, which I’ll review tonight. Enjoy wrestling!
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