By Don Murphy, ProWrestling.net Contributor (@DonThePredictor)
AEW presents its annual Full Gear event on Saturday in Phoenix, Arizona, at Mortgage Matchup Center. The narrative on the company over the past couple of years has been that it has been able to produce great pay-per-views while having issues growing an audience for its weekly television shows. The company’s answer to this seems to have been to add more pay-per-views to its schedule. More times than not, they get good grades from viewers, as the in-ring product seems to resonate well with their fans. The downside of this approach is that it leaves limited time to present a proper build for its matches. WWE is plagued by this as well, and the result is rushed storylines and payoffs that don’t have as much of an impact as they would have if they’d been given time to breathe. We can get into that more, but I think that’s the main drawback of this show. Now then, let’s run down the card!
NOTE: As of this writing, the Federal Aviation Administration has issued a nationwide ground stoppage for all flights. While the predictions below are based on what is currently advertised, the card, as always, is subject to change based on any travel issues experienced by the talent.
Will Ospreay vs. Kyle Fletcher for the AEW World Championship. If you read my opening, you may be saying, “Don, these two have a storied history; this was a great build.” I am not denying that at all. Their go-home promo served its purpose, and I do not doubt that those in attendance and those who order this show will immensely enjoy this match. My issue is that it feels like it’s a little too soon to go back to this match. First, Fletcher only recently lost the International Title. Why not take him on a journey that leads him into title contention? Instead, it’s only been about three months, and it came to be because Fletcher attacked Ospreay. It’s fine, but I feel like we needed another three to six months before we went back to this match.
Don Predicts: Will Ospreay defeats Kyle Fletcher to retain the AEW World Championship.
Mercedes Mone vs. Marina Shafir for the AEW Women’s Championship. I mean no disrespect to Shafir, but I feel like this match was booked purely because there was no one credible left on the women’s roster that Mone hasn’t defeated. Don’t get me wrong, Shafir’s Death Rider character has been great. It’s her in-ring work that has been suspect. Mone should be able to lead her into a passable match, but it will be interesting to watch nonetheless.
Don Predicts: Mercedes Mone defeats Marina Shafir to retain the AEW Women’s Championship.
Hangman Page, Bandido, and Brody King vs. Swerve Strickland, Kofi, and Austin Creed in a Texas Death Match for the AEW Trios Titles. I don’t have an issue with the Texas Death Match stipulation, as long as they don’t go too overboard with plastic bags over the head or hypodermic needles. AEW fans react well whenever Page and Strickland get together, and AEW seems to be telling the story where Kofi and Creed either break away from Strickland or fully join him as heels. For Page, his association with King and Bandido has been fun, but I wouldn’t mind seeing each of them move on to other things in the singles or tag divisions. The trios titles just aren’t as relevant as AEW would like, and they’d be better utilized elsewhere, particularly Page.
Don Predicts: Swerve Strickland, Kofi, and Austin Creed defeat Hangman Page, Bandido, and Brody King in a Texas Death Match to win the AEW Trios Titles.
Kazuchika Okada vs. Adam Copeland for the AEW International Championship. I’ll stop short of calling this a dream match, but these two represent two different generations of fans. Given this, I would have liked this to have meant more, but Copeland’s character has been more focused on criticizing the current style than participating in a meaningful build to the match. Nevertheless, I think the plan is for Copeland to have short runs with the AEW men’s titles before he calls it a career next year. In losing, I don’t think Okada loses anything and will likely be back with one of the other titles in short order.
Don Predicts: Adam Copeland defeats Kazuchika Okada to win the AEW International Championship.
“The Young Bucks” Matt Jackson and Nick Jackson vs. Mark Davis and Jake Doyle for the AEW Tag Team Titles. They had a great opportunity here to build to a match with an unpredictable outcome. I loved that AEW had Davis and Doyle squash the Bucks on TV in three minutes. That should have been the last time they touched until now. But the Bucks were out in the next segment to set up Blood and Guts, while going toe-to-toe with Davis and Doyle in that match. To me, that took away from the squash angle and made this feel more predictable than it should.
Don Predicts: “The Young Bucks” Matt Jackson and Nick Jackson defeat Mark Davis and Jake Doyle to retain the AEW Tag Team Titles.
“The Brawling Birds” Jamie Hayter and Alex Windsor vs. Harley Cameron and Kris Statlander for the AEW Women’s Tag Team Titles. For me, this is about as flat as it gets. Similar to the trios titles, the women’s tag division seems to be spinning its wheels. For those in attendance, I’m sure it will be fine, but this is one where the crowd may lose interest in the middle of a four-hour show.
Don Predicts: “The Brawling Birds” Jamie Hayter and Alex Windsor defeat Harley Cameron and Kris Statlander to retail the AEW Women’s Tag Team Titles.
Tommaso Ciampa vs. Ilja Dragunov for the AEW National Championship. This match is going to be an absolute banger. But for those who have watched these two for the last ten years. Imagine if this were the NXT version of Ciampa vs. the NXT UK version of Dragunov, with the character and booking behind it. That would be off the charts. As I said, the match will be a banger, but these two just don’t mean as much as they should. Also, as you know, I’m not a fan of playing hot potato with any of the titles, but since this one doesn’t mean as much, I’m fine with it.
Don Predicts: Ilja Dragonuv defeats Tommaso Ciampa to win the AEW National Championship.
Jon Moxley, Gabe Kidd, Daniel Garcia, Wheeler Yuta, Orange Cassidy, Kyle O’Reilly, and Roderick Strong vs. “The Cut” Jay White, Ace Austin, Austin Gunn, Clark Connors, Colten Gunn, David Finlay, and Juice Robinson in an Anarchy in the Arena match. Faction wars don’t do it for me, and I haven’t been in on the new Jay White faction yet. That said, the fans are going to eat this up, and it will be chock full of crazy spots in and around the ring that should make this a must-see.
Don Predicts: “The Cut” Jay White, Ace Austin, Austin Gunn, Clark Connors, Colten Gunn, David Finlay, and Juice Robinson defeat Jon Moxley, Gabe Kidd, Daniel Garcia, Wheeler Yuta, Orange Cassidy, Kyle O’Reilly, and Roderick Strong in an Anarchy in the Arena match.
Quick Pre-Show Prediction
Queen Aminata defeats Persephone and Maya World in a three-way to retain the TBS Championship.
AEW pay-per-views cost $49.99 (or $39.99 via HBO Max). Join Jason Powell for his live review as the pre-show is simulcast on TNT and HBO Max at 6CT/7ET or for the start of the pay-per-view card at 7CT/8ET. Jake Barnett and Jason will team up for a same-night audio review for Dot Net Members (including our Patreon patrons). Enjoy Full Gear and enjoy wrestling!
